OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Window 27 Aug 2026, 17:59 UTC → 27 Aug 2026, 19:29 UTC

Price at window start 80¢ → at trigger 81¢ → at close 81¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 01 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +1.1pts: 80¢ at window start → 81¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 80¢ (band 74¢–80¢)
band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $49.0k in 24h
BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $35.6k/$71.0k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 5.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,013 trades / 7d

Book 2.0:1 ask, $35.6k/$71.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

27 Aug 2026, 17:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 80¢ → 81¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 9 min before the break

THE WHITE HOUSE IS SPURNING A RETURN TO THE TERMS OF ITS JUNE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH IRAN, COMPLICATING THIS WEEK'S FLURRY OF DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO RESTART THE PROCESS, ACCORDING TO PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER. - WSJ

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 81¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
+30m: 81¢, held +1.1ptspts
Peak move: +1.2pts
Held 96% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 81¢
Graded from 180 snapshots