Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.6pts: 20¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–24¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $8.5k/$11.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $22.7k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $8.5k/$11.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 16:17 UTC: Band breach (lower): 20¢ → 20¢ (-0.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +1.6ptspts
• Peak move: +1.6pts
• Held 97% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots