Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 89¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 88¢ (band 88¢–93¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 7.0:1 ask, $11.0k/$76.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $9.5k in 24h

Book 7.0:1 ask, $11.0k/$76.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 02:14 UTC: Band breach (lower): 89¢ → 88¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots