Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 89¢ at window start → 86¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 88¢ (band 88¢–93¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $17.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 20.0:1 ask, $3.5k/$68.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $732, 1.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 448 trades / 7d

Book 20.0:1 ask, $3.5k/$68.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 27 Aug 2026, 05:43 UTC: Band breach (lower): 89¢ → 88¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 05:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 85¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 87¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 71% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 86¢
• Graded from 174 snapshots