Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.7pts: 10¢ at window start → 9¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 10¢ (band 10¢–15¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 9.7× this market's 7-day norm, $8.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $5.6k/$1.7k within 10¢

Book 3.2:1 bid, $5.6k/$1.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 03:05 UTC: Band breach (lower): 10¢ → 10¢ (-0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 9¢, held +1.6ptspts
• Peak move: +1.6pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 9¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots