Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.2pts: 56¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 55¢ (band 55¢–58¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $9.3k/$11.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.3k, 6.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 362 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $1.6k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $9.3k/$11.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 10:48 UTC: Band breach (lower): 56¢ → 54¢ (-1.9pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.65× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 17 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +3.2ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 94% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots