Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 29¢ (band 26¢–29¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.3× this market's 7-day norm, $157.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 18.0:1 ask, $2.6k/$46.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $13.1k, 18.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 475 trades / 7d

Book 18.0:1 ask, $2.6k/$46.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 27 Aug 2026, 16:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 28¢ → 30¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 16:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 24¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 16:44 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 25¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 17:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 41 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held -4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 30¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots