Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–29¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.5× this market's 7-day norm, $162.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 12.6:1 ask, $873/$11.0k within 10¢

Book 12.6:1 ask, $873/$11.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 22:06 UTC: Band breach (lower): 28¢ → 26¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots