Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 92¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 93¢ (band 89¢–93¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $16.5k/$15.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $14.5k, 14.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 215 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $6.7k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $16.5k/$15.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 20:33 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 93¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 93¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 93¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots