Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 92¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 92¢ (band 92¢–95¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 61.1:1 ask, $1.1k/$69.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $7.5k in 24h

Book 61.1:1 ask, $1.1k/$69.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.8¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 10:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 92¢ → 92¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 93¢, drift -0.6pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held -0.1ptspts
• Peak move: +0.9pts
• Held 56% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots