Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.6pts: 92¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• BOOK Book 20.7:1 ask, $4.6k/$94.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $187, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 717 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $7.5k in 24h

Book 20.7:1 ask, $4.6k/$94.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 16:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 92¢ → 91¢ (-0.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 92¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held -0.2ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots