Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 52¢ (band 52¢–55¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 ask, $53.9k/$209.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $4.3k in 24h

Book 3.9:1 ask, $53.9k/$209.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 18:25 UTC: Band breach (lower): 53¢ → 52¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots