US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 20¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–26¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $9.5k/$12.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 706 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $37.1k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $9.5k/$12.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC: Band breach (lower): 20¢ → 19¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots