US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $19.7k/$13.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $12.7k, 12.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,820 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $118.8k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 bid, $19.7k/$13.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 27 Aug 2026, 15:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 39¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 15:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 36¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 30¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 16:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 33¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 87 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots