US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.8pts: 72¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 ask, $20.4k/$52.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $21.2k, 58.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,016 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 2.6:1 ask, $20.4k/$52.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (2)

• 27 Aug 2026, 15:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 72¢ → 69¢ (-3.2pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 16:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 72¢ (+3.2pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 44 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 72¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 43% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots