Ohio Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $9.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $140.0k/$178.5k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 ask, $140.0k/$178.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 13:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 53¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.97× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots