Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.1pts: 88¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 88¢ (band 85¢–88¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $40.8k/$10.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $127, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 907 trades / 7d

Book 3.8:1 bid, $40.8k/$10.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 01:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 88¢ → 88¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 89¢, drift +0.8pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 79% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots