OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Window 27 Aug 2026, 06:37 UTC → 27 Aug 2026, 08:07 UTC
Price at window start 91¢ → at trigger 92¢ → at close 92¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 91¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 91¢ (band 86¢–91¢)
band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
- BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $7.2k/$14.5k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $3.2k in 24h
Book 2.0:1 ask, $7.2k/$14.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 27 Aug 2026, 06:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 91¢ → 92¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 92¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 92¢, held +0.5ptspts
- Peak move: +1.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 92¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots