Wisconsin Governor winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 79¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 79¢ (band 75¢–79¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $1.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $16.8k/$11.2k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 bid, $16.8k/$11.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 17:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 79¢ → 80¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.24× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 80¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 80¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots