Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 72¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 72¢ (band 69¢–72¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask, $155.7k/$396.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $16.0k, 26.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,358 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $78.3k in 24h

Book 2.5:1 ask, $155.7k/$396.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 10:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 72¢ → 73¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 74¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 74¢
• Graded from 173 snapshots