Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.5pts: 56¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 54¢ (band 54¢–59¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 24.9:1 ask, $95/$2.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $255 in 24h

Book 24.9:1 ask, $95/$2.4k within 10¢ · spread 8.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 20:38 UTC: Band breach (lower): 56¢ → 51¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 93% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots