Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 32¢ at window start → 35¢ at close
• VOLUME 5.0× this market's 7-day norm, $2.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $2.0k/$2.5k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 ask, $2.0k/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 13:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 35¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.47× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 35¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots