Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 41¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 41¢ (band 38¢–41¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $1.0k/$2.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $195 in 24h

Book 1.9:1 ask, $1.0k/$2.0k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 41¢ → 42¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 42¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots