Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -13.5pts: 53¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 53¢ (band 53¢–65¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 9.7× this market's 7-day norm, $32.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 bid, $753/$340 within 10¢

Book 2.2:1 bid, $753/$340 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 26 Aug 2026, 02:03 UTC: Band breach (lower): 53¢ → 46¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 02:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 42¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.63× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +3.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +12.5ptspts
• Peak move: +13.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots