Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -8.5pts: 46¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 52¢ (band 52¢–65¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 8.3× this market's 7-day norm, $34.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.9:1 ask, $612/$3.0k within 10¢

Book 4.9:1 ask, $612/$3.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 26 Aug 2026, 11:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 43¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 12:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 38¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +8.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 38¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots