Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 88¢ at window start → 84¢ at close
• VOLUME 7.9× this market's 7-day norm, $4.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $4.3k/$6.6k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 ask, $4.3k/$6.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 84¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.62× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 84¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 84¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 84¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots