Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 54¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 55¢ (band 49¢–55¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $32.2k/$21.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 bid, $32.2k/$21.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 03:12 UTC: Band breach (upper): 54¢ → 58¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.82× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 71 snapshots