Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 50¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 49¢ (band 49¢–55¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $19.1k/$26.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.3k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $19.1k/$26.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 20:39 UTC: Band breach (lower): 50¢ → 48¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots