Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 59¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $33.7k/$19.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $819, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 404 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $33.7k/$19.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 09:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 53¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots