Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.2pts: 21¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 21¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $9.6k/$14.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $16.9k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $9.6k/$14.3k within 10¢ · spread 0.6¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 10:45 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.35× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.3pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 173 snapshots