Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 27¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–29¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $3.5k/$2.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 bid, $3.5k/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 08:37 UTC: Band breach (lower): 27¢ → 26¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots