Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 93¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 94¢ (band 90¢–94¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.4× this market's 7-day norm, $11.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $10.7k/$9.1k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $10.7k/$9.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 21:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 93¢ → 97¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.87× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 97¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.3pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 97¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots