Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.5pts: 32¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–36¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.7× this market's 7-day norm, $22.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 ask, $1.9k/$6.8k within 10¢

Book 3.6:1 ask, $1.9k/$6.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 16:20 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 24¢ (-8.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 65% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots