US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $5.9k/$7.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $30.3k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $5.9k/$7.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 22:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 22¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.46× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 22¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 21¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots