US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 88¢ at window start → 90¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 84¢ (band 73¢–84¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $239.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $63.4k/$111.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.0k, 7.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 653 trades / 7d

Book 1.8:1 ask, $63.4k/$111.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 02:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 91¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 90¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 90¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots