US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 bid, $18.0k/$5.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,449 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $218.8k in 24h

Book 3.3:1 bid, $18.0k/$5.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 13:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots