US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 40¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $8.3k/$4.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $198.1k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $8.3k/$4.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 26 Aug 2026, 18:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 40¢ → 46¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 18:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 43¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 31s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 42¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots