US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 37¢ (band 26¢–37¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $351.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 bid, $13.9k/$3.4k within 10¢

Book 4.1:1 bid, $13.9k/$3.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 26 Aug 2026, 00:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 44¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 00:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 41¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots