US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 39¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 41¢ (band 26¢–41¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.7× this market's 7-day norm, $274.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $15.3k/$4.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.0k, 6.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,408 trades / 7d

Book 3.8:1 bid, $15.3k/$4.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 26 Aug 2026, 08:33 UTC: Band breach (upper): 39¢ → 42¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 09:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 45¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 09:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 42¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots