UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.5pts: 23¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• VOLUME 11.5× this market's 7-day norm, $8.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $3.2k/$2.8k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $3.2k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 18:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 18¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.79× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 93% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots