South Carolina Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 89¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 88¢ (band 88¢–91¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.4× this market's 7-day norm, $4.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $76.9k/$73.5k within 10¢

Book 1.0:1 bid, $76.9k/$73.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 01:23 UTC: Band breach (lower): 89¢ → 87¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@zerohedge · X: posted 32 min before the break

*GRAHAM WINS SOUTH CAROLINA GOP SENATE RUNOFF, DDHQ PROJECTS

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots