Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.2pts: 87¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $4.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 21.8:1 bid, $41.0k/$1.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 15.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 888 trades / 7d

Book 21.8:1 bid, $41.0k/$1.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC: Band breach (upper): 87¢ → 89¢ (+1.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift -1.7pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 86¢, held -1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.8pts
• Held 11% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 87¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots