OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Window 26 Aug 2026, 00:14 UTC → 26 Aug 2026, 01:44 UTC
Price at window start 24¢ → at trigger 23¢ → at close 24¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 24¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
- BOOK Book 9.2:1 bid, $18.1k/$2.0k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.0× this market's 7-day norm, $216 in 24h
Book 9.2:1 bid, $18.1k/$2.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 26 Aug 2026, 00:14 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 24¢, held +0.5ptspts
- Peak move: +1.0pts
- Held 50% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 24¢
- Graded from 174 snapshots