Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 16¢ (band 16¢–19¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 33.6× this market's 7-day norm, $159.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $8.8k/$5.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $839, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 167 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 bid, $8.8k/$5.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 26 Aug 2026, 02:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 19¢ → 7¢ (-12.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 02:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 7¢ → 13¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 03:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 10¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 26 Aug 2026, 03:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 10¢ → 13¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 30 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 9¢, drift -2.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +12.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots