Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 40¢ (band 40¢–61¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.9:1 ask, $8.1k/$47.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $4.5k in 24h

Book 5.9:1 ask, $8.1k/$47.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 02:49 UTC: Band breach (lower): 41¢ → 40¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots