Michigan Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 40¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 39¢ (band 39¢–62¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $53.0k/$121.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $959, 1.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 899 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $12.1k in 24h

Book 2.3:1 ask, $53.0k/$121.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 13:50 UTC: Band breach (lower): 40¢ → 39¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots