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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 35¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 35¢ (band 35¢–38¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $102.6k/$172.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.9k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 ask, $102.6k/$172.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 02:03 UTC: Band breach (lower): 36¢ → 35¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 35¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots