Iran leadership change by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 17¢ at window start → 18¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 17¢ (band 14¢–17¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.9× this market's 7-day norm, $43.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 26.8:1 bid, $118.2k/$4.4k within 10¢

Book 26.8:1 bid, $118.2k/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 10:33 UTC: Band breach (upper): 17¢ → 18¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 18¢
• Graded from 173 snapshots