Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–14¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 bid, $5.3k/$1.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $7.3k in 24h

Book 3.7:1 bid, $5.3k/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 10:47 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 173 snapshots