OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 26 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC → 26 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
Price at window start 69¢ → at trigger 70¢ → at close 69¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.3pts: 69¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
- VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $8.0k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.3:1 ask, $3.3k/$10.7k within 10¢
Book 3.3:1 ask, $3.3k/$10.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 26 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 69¢ → 70¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 33 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 70¢, held +1.2ptspts
- Peak move: +1.3pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 69¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots